Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : an advanced envelope-based selection approach

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dc.contributor.authorLutz, Arthur F.
dc.contributor.authorter Maat, Herbert W.
dc.contributor.authorBiemans, Hester
dc.contributor.authorShrestha, Arun B.
dc.contributor.authorWester, Philippus
dc.contributor.authorImmerzeel, Walter W.
dc.date.accessioned2019-03-22T18:14:11Z
dc.date.available2019-03-22T18:14:11Z
dc.date.issued2016-01
dc.descriptionThis work was carried out as part of the Himalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE) consortium under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. This work was also partially supported by core funds of ICIMOD contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar,Nepal,Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.en
dc.description.abstractClimate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impact study. The selection of climate models is not straightforward and can be done by following different methods. Usually, the selection is either based on the entire range of changes in climatic variables as projected by the total ensemble of available climate models or on the skill of climate models to simulate past climate. The present study combines these approaches in a three-step sequential climate model selection procedure: (1) initial selection of climate models based on the range of projected changes in climatic means, (2) refined selection based on the range of projected changes in climatic extremes and (3) final selection based on the climate model skill to simulate past climate. This procedure is illustrated for a study area covering the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins. Subsequently, the changes in climate between 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are analysed, showing that the future climate projections in this area are highly uncertain but that changes are imminent.en
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dc.identifier.citationLutz, A. F., ter Maat, H. W., Biemans, H. , Shrestha, A. B., Wester, P. and Immerzeel, W. W. (2016), Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope‐based selection approach. Int. J. Climatol., 36: 3988-4005. doi:10.1002/joc.4608en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10625/57496
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd., International Journal of Climatologyen
dc.subjectGCMen
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODEL SELECTIONen
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIESen
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLEen
dc.subjectINDUSen
dc.subjectGANGESen
dc.subjectBRAHMAPUTRAen
dc.titleSelecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : an advanced envelope-based selection approachen
dc.typeJournal Article (peer-reviewed)en
idrc.copyright.oapermissionsourceThis is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.en
idrc.dspace.accessOpen Accessen
idrc.project.number107641
idrc.project.titleHimalayan Adaptation, Water and Resilience (HI-AWARE)en
idrc.recordsserver.bcsnumberIC36-1643402171-223853
idrc.rims.adhocgroupIDRC SUPPORTEDen

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