Assessment of Canadian prairie drought : past, present, and future

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dc.contributor.authorBonsal, Barrie R.
dc.contributor.authorAider, Rabah
dc.contributor.authorPhilippe Gachon
dc.contributor.authorSuzan Lapp
dc.date.accessioned2013-08-09T15:27:43Z
dc.date.available2013-08-09T15:27:43Z
dc.date.copyright2012
dc.date.issued2012-06
dc.description.abstractWithin Canada, the Canadian Prairies are particularly drought-prone mainly due to their location in the lee of the western cordillera and distance from large moisture sources. Although previous studies examined the occurrence of Canadian Prairie droughts during instrumental, pre-instrumental and to a lesser extent, future periods, none have specifically focused on all time three scales. Using two different drought indicators, namely the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), this investigation assesses the variability of summer drought duration and intensity over a core region of the Prairies during (a) the pre-instrumental record extending back several centuries (inferred from tree rings), (b) the instrumental record (1901–2005), and (c) the twenty-first century using statistically downscaled climate variables from several Atmosphere–Ocean Global climate models with multiple emission scenarios. Results reveal that observed twentieth century droughts were relatively mild when compared to pre-settlement on the Prairies, but these periods are likely to return (and even worsen) in the future due to the anticipated warming during the course of the twenty-first century. However, future drought projections are distinctly different between the two indices. All PDSI-related model runs show greater drought frequency and severity mainly due to increasing temperatures. Conversely, the precipitation-based SPI indicates no significant changes to future summer drought frequency although there tends to be a higher persistence of multi-year droughts in central and southern portions of Canadian Prairies. These findings therefore stress the importance of considering anticipated warming trends when assessing future regional-scale drought, especially given the uncertainties and lack of consistency in future precipitation signals among climate models. This study can be considered an initial step toward quantifying and understanding Canadian Prairie drought occurrence and severity over several centuries as determined from paleo, instrumental, and climate model data sources.en
dc.formatTexten
dc.format.extent1 digital file (p. 501-516)en
dc.format.mimetypeApplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationBonsal, B.R., Aider, R., Gachon, P., & Lapp, S. (2013). An assessment of Canadian prairie drought: past, present, and future. Climate Dynamics, 41(2), 501-516.doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1422-0en
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10625/51493
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/240133461_An_assessment_of_Canadian_prairie_drought_past_present_and_future
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringeren
dc.subjectDROUGHTen
dc.subjectCANADIAN PRAIRIESen
dc.subjectPALEO-CLIMATEen
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGEen
dc.subjectDOWNSCALINGen
dc.subjectATMOSPHERE–OCEAN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELSen
dc.subjectCANADAen
dc.subjectPRAIRIESen
dc.subjectDROUGHT PRONE AREASen
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONen
dc.titleAssessment of Canadian prairie drought : past, present, and futureen
dc.typeJournal Article (peer-reviewed)en
idrc.copyright.holderHer Majesty the Queen in the Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of the Environment
idrc.dspace.accessIDRC Onlyen
idrc.noaccessDue to copyright restrictions the full text of this research output is not available in the IDRC Digital Library or by request from the IDRC Library. / Compte tenu des restrictions relatives au droit d'auteur, le texte intégral de cet extrant de recherche n'est pas accessible dans la Bibliothèque numérique du CRDI, et il n'est pas possible d'en faire la demande à la Bibliothéque du CRDI.en
idrc.project.componentnumber106372013
idrc.project.number106372
idrc.project.titleInternational Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Changeen
idrc.recordsserver.bcsnumberIC01-3527-45
idrc.rims.adhocgroupIDRC SUPPORTEDen

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