Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa

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dc.contributor.authorGitheko, Andrew K.
dc.contributor.authorOgallo, Laban
dc.contributor.authorLemnge, Martha
dc.contributor.authorOkia, Michael
dc.contributor.authorOtoto, Ednah N.
dc.date.accessioned2014-09-12T19:12:48Z
dc.date.available2014-09-12T19:12:48Z
dc.date.copyright2014
dc.date.issued2014
dc.description.abstractProcess-based models were constructed for computing the risk of malaria epidemic using temperature and rainfall data. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between detection of the epidemic signal and evolution of the epidemic. Malaria data was collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda with temperature and rainfall data from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models. Results validate the additive and multiplicative models, which were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationGitheko, A.K., Ogallo, L., Lemnge, M., Okia, M., & Ototo, E.N. (2014). Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa. Malaria Journal, 13(329), 1-10. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-329en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10625/53189
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherBioMed Centralen
dc.subjectMALARIAen
dc.subjectFORECASTING TECHNIQUESen
dc.subjectCLIMATE SENSITIVE DISEASESen
dc.subjectSOUTH OF SAHARAen
dc.subjectEPIDEMIOLOGYen
dc.subjectMATHEMATICAL MODELSen
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMSen
dc.subjectDISEASE VECTORSen
dc.subjectVECTOR-BORNE DISEASESen
dc.titleDevelopment and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africaen
dc.typeJournal Article (peer-reviewed)en
idrc.copyright.holderGitheko et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
idrc.copyright.oapermissionsourceCC BYen
idrc.dspace.accessOpen Accessen
idrc.project.number104707
idrc.project.titleTransferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africaen
idrc.rims.adhocgroupIDRC SUPPORTEDen

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