General and flexible methodology to define thresholds for heat health watch and warning systems, applied to the province of Québec (Canada)

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dc.contributor.authorChebana, Fateh
dc.contributor.authorMartel, Barbara
dc.contributor.authorGosselin, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorGiroux, Jean-Xavier
dc.contributor.authorOuarda, Taha B.M.J.
dc.date.accessioned2013-08-09T15:04:26Z
dc.date.available2013-08-09T15:04:26Z
dc.date.copyright2012
dc.date.issued2012-10
dc.description.abstractSeveral watch and warning systems have been established in the world in recent years to prevent the effects of heat waves. However, many of these approaches can be applied only in regions with perfect conditions (e.g., enough data, stationary series or homogeneous regions). Furthermore, a number of these approaches do not account for possible trend in mortality and/or temperature series, whereas others are generally not adapted to regions with low population densities or low daily mortality levels. In addition, prediction based on multiple days preceding the event can be less accurate if it attributes the same importance to each of these days, since the forecasting accuracy actually decreases with the period. The aim of the present study was to identify appropriate indicators as well as flexible and general thresholds that can be applied to a variety of regions and conditions. From a practical point of view, the province of Québec constitutes a typical case where a number of the above-mentioned constraints are present. On the other hand, until recently, the province's watch and warning system was based on a study conducted in 2005, covering only the city of Montreal and applied to the whole province. The proposed approach is applied to each one of the other health regions of the province often experiencing low daily counts of mortality and presenting trends. The first constraint led to grouping meteorologically homogeneous regions across the province in which the number of deaths is sufficient to carry out the appropriate data analyses. In each region, mortality trends are taken into account. In addition, the proposed indicators are defined by a 3-day weighted mean of maximal and minimal temperatures. The sensitivity of the results to the inclusion of traumatic deaths is also checked. The application shows that the proposed method improved the results in terms of sensitivity, specificity and number of yearly false alarms, compared to those of the existing and other classical approaches. An additional criterion based on the Humidex is applied in a second step and a local validation is applied to historical observations at reference forecasting stations. An integrated heat health watch and warning system with thresholds that are adapted to the regional climate has thus been established for each sub-region of the province of Quebec and became operational in June 2010.en
dc.formatTexten
dc.format.extent1 digital file (p. 631-644)en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.citationChebana, F., Martel, B., Gosselin, P., Giroux, J.X., & Ouarda, T.B.M.J. (2013). A general and flexible methodology to define thresholds for heat health watch and warning systems, applied to the province of Québec (Canada). International Journal of Biometeorology, 57(4), 631-644.doi:10.1007/s00484-012-0590-2en
dc.identifier.issn1432-1254
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10625/51492
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringeren
dc.subjectHEATWAVESen
dc.subjectWATCH AND WARNING SYSTEMen
dc.subjectHEAT-RELATED MORTALITYen
dc.subjectTHRESHOLDSen
dc.subjectCANADA--QUEBECen
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELLINGen
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTHen
dc.titleGeneral and flexible methodology to define thresholds for heat health watch and warning systems, applied to the province of Québec (Canada)en
dc.typeJournal Article (peer-reviewed)en
idrc.copyright.holderISB
idrc.dspace.accessIDRC Onlyen
idrc.noaccessDue to copyright restrictions the full text of this research output is not available in the IDRC Digital Library or by request from the IDRC Library. / Compte tenu des restrictions relatives au droit d'auteur, le texte intégral de cet extrant de recherche n'est pas accessible dans la Bibliothèque numérique du CRDI, et il n'est pas possible d'en faire la demande à la Bibliothéque du CRDI.en
idrc.project.componentnumber106372013
idrc.project.number106372
idrc.project.titleInternational Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Changeen
idrc.recordsserver.bcsnumberIC01-3527-44
idrc.rims.adhocgroupIDRC SUPPORTEDen

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