Kenya medical research institute2011-07-072011-07-072010http://hdl.handle.net/10625/46456The Kenya Medical Research Institute has developed a climate model for early prediction of malaria epidemics. Designed for joint use by the Departments of Meteorology and National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP), the models are user-friendly and generate accurate decision-making information. Increase in malaria cases during an epidemic is exponential; cases can increase from100-600% quickly depleting resources required to manage the epidemic. The new models show high sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power; they can detect weather conditions that support rapid generation of malaria parasites in disease vectors 2-3 months ahead of the epidemic, thus providing sufficient time to deploy interventions.enMALARIAEPIDEMIOLOGYDISEASE CONTROLPROPHYLAXISMALARIA EPIDEMICSEARLY PREDICTIONCLIMATE DATAWEATHEREAST AFRICAPolicy Brief