Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa
Date
2014
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
BioMed Central
Abstract
Process-based models were constructed for computing the risk of malaria epidemic using temperature and rainfall data. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between detection of the epidemic signal and evolution of the epidemic. Malaria data was collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda with temperature and rainfall data from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models. Results validate the additive and multiplicative models, which were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power.
Description
item.page.type
Journal Article (peer-reviewed)
item.page.format
Keywords
MALARIA, FORECASTING TECHNIQUES, CLIMATE SENSITIVE DISEASES, SOUTH OF SAHARA, EPIDEMIOLOGY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, ECOSYSTEMS, DISEASE VECTORS, VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES
Citation
Githeko, A.K., Ogallo, L., Lemnge, M., Okia, M., & Ototo, E.N. (2014). Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa. Malaria Journal, 13(329), 1-10. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-329