Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa

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IDL-53189.pdf (952.44 KB)

Date

2014

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BioMed Central

Abstract

Process-based models were constructed for computing the risk of malaria epidemic using temperature and rainfall data. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between detection of the epidemic signal and evolution of the epidemic. Malaria data was collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda with temperature and rainfall data from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models. Results validate the additive and multiplicative models, which were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power.

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Keywords

MALARIA, FORECASTING TECHNIQUES, CLIMATE SENSITIVE DISEASES, SOUTH OF SAHARA, EPIDEMIOLOGY, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, ECOSYSTEMS, DISEASE VECTORS, VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES

Citation

Githeko, A.K., Ogallo, L., Lemnge, M., Okia, M., & Ototo, E.N. (2014). Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa. Malaria Journal, 13(329), 1-10. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-329

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10625/53189

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IDRC Research Results / Résultats de recherches du CRDI
2010-2019 / Années 2010-2019
Research Results (CCAA) / Résultats de recherches (ACCA)