Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa

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dc.contributor.author Githeko, Andrew K.
dc.contributor.author Ogallo, Laban
dc.contributor.author Lemnge, Martha
dc.contributor.author Okia, Michael
dc.contributor.author Ototo, Ednah N.
dc.date.accessioned 2014-09-12T19:12:48Z
dc.date.available 2014-09-12T19:12:48Z
dc.date.copyright 2014
dc.date.issued 2014
dc.identifier.citation Githeko, A.K., Ogallo, L., Lemnge, M., Okia, M., & Ototo, E.N. (2014). Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa. Malaria Journal, 13(329), 1-10. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-329 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10625/53189
dc.description.abstract Process-based models were constructed for computing the risk of malaria epidemic using temperature and rainfall data. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between detection of the epidemic signal and evolution of the epidemic. Malaria data was collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda with temperature and rainfall data from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models. Results validate the additive and multiplicative models, which were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher BioMed Central en
dc.subject MALARIA en
dc.subject FORECASTING TECHNIQUES en
dc.subject CLIMATE SENSITIVE DISEASES en
dc.subject SOUTH OF SAHARA en
dc.subject EPIDEMIOLOGY en
dc.subject MATHEMATICAL MODELS en
dc.subject ECOSYSTEMS en
dc.subject DISEASE VECTORS en
dc.subject VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES en
dc.title Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa en
dc.type Journal Article (peer-reviewed) en
idrc.project.number 104707
idrc.project.title Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa en
idrc.copyright.holder Githeko et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
idrc.copyright.oapermissionsource CC BY en
idrc.dspace.access Open Access en
idrc.rims.adhocgroup IDRC SUPPORTED en


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