Reconciling uncertainty and decision-making in climate adaptation
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2014
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Abstract
Determining when and where uncertainty matters when it comes to predictions around climate change represents an ongoing challenge for local climate change adaptation efforts. The article analyzes how to meet challenges in decision making as well as identifying some of the faces of uncertainty. For instance, by identifying ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options that deliver benefits across a wide range of possible climate, institutional and socio-economic futures, appropriate points of departure can be found. Climate change uncertainty places a greater emphasis on knowledge accumulation and communication, and on iterative and flexible decision outcomes. Designing these features into adaptation programmes is important.
Description
Produced for discussion by the delegates at IDRC’s workshop, Research on Adaptation to Climate Change in Coastal and Estuarine Systems, Belem, Brazil, 2-4 October, 2013. http://coastalworkshop.wix.com/2013
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Working Paper
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Keywords
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, UNCERTAINTY, PLANNING, SCENARIOS, LOCAL KNOWLEDGE, DECISION MAKING, GLOBAL