Methodological strengths and weaknesses of climate change modeling and downscaling : background research paper

Abstract

“Downscaling” is a method of generating data from global models that can be locally relevant, and is useful for analyzing potential impacts and conducting vulnerability studies. As coastal zones are particularly susceptible to climate change impacts, this background paper analyzes some of the strengths and challenges of downscaling General Circulation Models (GCM) that were experienced by Climate Change and Water (CCW) project partners conducting adaptation research in coastal areas. Downscaled and modeled information must focus on end-user needs, particularly in developing countries, including a clear understanding of available data limits, and acknowledgement of uncertainty and probability.