Tobacco taxation policies in the former USSR countries : final technical report
Date
2013-07
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Publisher
Alcohol and Drug Information Center (ADIC-Ukraine), Kiev, UA
Abstract
The general objective was to inform policy-makers how their tobacco taxation policy can better serve public health goals. Simple model to forecast impact of tobacco excise rates increase on tobacco prices, revenue, and consumption was developed. It was tested for Ukraine and used for policy papers in Belarus, Georgia, and Uzbekistan. The model can be used by non-economists in any country provided that background economic data are available. Detailed databases on tobacco tax rates, prices, sales, production, revenues, household expenditures, CPI, smoking prevalence rates and other indicators were established for Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Moldova, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Tobacco industry routinely used smuggling arguments against tobacco tax increase. The project showed that industry forecasts are misleading, but good monitoring is needed to reveal this. Tobacco smuggling out of the country is a major phenomenon in fSU countries which governments and industry prefer to ignore. The project revealed that this kind of tobacco smuggling should be monitored for proper understanding and forecasting trends in tobacco consumption and revenue. The project also demonstrated that decrease of tobacco products affordability (measured as real price adjusted for inflation and income trends) within a country is a key strategy for decreasing tobacco consumption.
Description
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Final Technical Report
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Keywords
TAXATION, TOBACCO, EXCISE TAX, AFFORDABILITY, UKRAINE, FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS, PUBLIC HEALTH, EASTERN EUROPE, SMOKING PREVALENCE, SMOKING CESSATION