Modeling strategies for controlling H1N1 outbreaks in China
Date
2012
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Publisher
World Scientific Publishing Company
Abstract
There has been a global attack of A/H1N1 virus in 2009, which widely affected the
world’s normal stability and economic development. Since the emergence of the first
diagnosed A/H1N1 influenza infected person in 11 May 2009 in China, very strict policy
including quarantine and isolation measures were widely implemented to control the
spread of this disease before the vaccine appeared. We propose a compartmental model
that mimics the infection process of A/H1N1 under control strategies taken in mainland
China. Apart from theoretical analysis, using the statistic data of Shaanxi Province,
we estimated the unknown epidemiological parameters of this disease in Shaanxi via
least-squares fitting method. The estimated control reproductive number of H1N1 for
its first peak was Rc1 = 2.555 (95% CI: 2.362–2.748) and that for the second peak was
Rc2 = 1.886 (95% CI: 1.765–2.001). Our findings in this paper suggest that neither
quarantine nor isolation measures could be relaxed, and the implementation of these
interventions can reduce the pandemic outbreak of A/H1N1 pandemic significantly.
Description
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Journal Article (peer-reviewed)
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Keywords
A/H1N1 INFLUENZA, QUARANTINE, ISOLATION, LEAST-SQUARES FITTING, VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES, INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H5N1 SUBTYPE, DISEASE CONTROL, CHINA
Citation
Jin Zhang, & Yanni Xiao (2012). Modeling strategies for controlling H1N1 outbreaks in China. International Journal of Biomathematics, 5(4): 1-19.doi:10.1142/S1793524511001593