System dynamics and GIS in the simulation of environmental change to coastal communities

Abstract

Climate change and sea level rise affects Canada’s most sensitive coastlines. This research proposal studies the community of Isle Madame in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The research focuses on identifying vulnerable areas in the community via geographical modeling using ArcGIS as well as simulating and modeling of coastal climate change via system dynamics. The objective of the research is to evaluate the physical, social, and economic impacts of a series of changing climate scenarios in order to plan for developing and implementing strategies to adapt to environmental change. The main challenges of this research are how to integrate and synthesize information from a variety of sources including biology, ecology, toxicology, habitat, natural resources, and environmental, as well as from human society including the study of, economic, social, cultural, and institutional and organizational dimensions. This includes industrial commercialization, community development, social stability, and federal and provincial government regulations and policy, that are all part of the human-environment integrated system. Determining the most vulnerable areas and improving local community knowledge, planning and community response networks are recognized as ways and means to reduce the negative impacts of pending climate change. This research outlines a dynamic model of coastal climate change for Isle Madame, designed to help the community be familiar with the community’s vulnerable areas in order to plan and implement a strategy to adapt to environmental change.