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Item Averting obesity and type 2 diabetes in India through sugar-sweetened beverage taxation : an economic-epidemiologic modeling study(PLOS, 2014-01) Basu, Sanjay; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Agrawal, Sutapa; Stuckler, David; Popkin, Barry; Ebrahim, ShahSugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is a major risk factor for overweight and obesity, as well as an array of cardio-metabolic conditions, especially type 2 diabetes. Nationwide taxation may be perverse if benefits accrue among only select populations while monetary penalties apply universally, especially if the tax burden but not the tax benefit falls disproportionately on the poor. The study estimates potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population.Item Palm oil taxes and cardiovascular disease mortality in India: economic-epidemiologic model(BMJ, 2013-10) Basu, Sanjay; Babiarz, Kim; Ebrahim, Shah; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Stuckler, David; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.A microsimulation model of mortality due to myocardial infarction and stroke among Indian populations was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data. Given estimates of substitution of palm oil with other oils following a 20% price increase for palm oil, the beneficial effects of increased polyunsaturated fat consumption would be expected to enhance the projected reduction in deaths to as much as 421,000 people. Other results: curtailing palm oil intake through taxation may modestly reduce hyperlipidemia and cardiovascular mortality, but with potential distributional consequences – differentially benefiting male and urban populations, as well as affecting food security.Item Effect of tobacco control measures during a period of rising cardiovascular disease risk in India : a mathematical model of myocardial infarction and stroke(PLOS, 2013-07) Basu, Sanjay; Glantz, Stanton; Bitton, Asaf; Millett, ChristopherSmoke-free laws and substantially increased tobacco taxation appear to be markedly potent population measures to avert future cardiovascular deaths in India. Despite the rise in co-morbid cardiovascular disease risk factors like hyperlipidemia and hypertension in low- and middle-income countries, tobacco control is likely to remain a highly effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular deaths. A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022.Item Dietary salt reduction and cardiovascular disease rates in India : a mathematical model(PLOS, 2012-09) Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David; Vellakkal, Sukumar; Ebrahim, ShahModest reductions in salt intake could substantially reduce cardiovascular disease throughout India. This study predicted rates of future myocardial infarctions (MI) and strokes in India using a Markov model, simulating men and women aged 40 to 69 in both urban and rural locations, and incorporating the risk reduction from lower salt intake. Results indicate the largest decline in MIs would be among younger urban men, but the greatest number of averted strokes would be among rural men, and nearly one-third of averted strokes and one-fifth of averted MIs would be among rural women.