Climate change impact on dry areas : a daunting challenge for sustainable agricultural production

Date

2008

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Abstract

Despite the varying definitions of drylands, it can be accepted that drylands cover about 54 million km2 of the globe, spreading across all continents, but concentrated in Asia and Africa. Projected global warming leading to extreme climate variability and change is expected to have significant impacts on agricultural production systems and the livelihood of millions. Drought could leave about 350 to 600 million Africans facing water shortages by the middle of this century. On the other hand, expected increase of rainfall in the arid lands of northeast Africa in the next 40 years will lead to dramatic changes in land use bringing more conflicts between farmers and pastoralists. Darfur dispute is blamed for such competition over land and water resources. Soil degradation, deforestation, spread of diseases, grinding poverty, environmental refugees, conflicts, and food security are challenging issues for the developing world under the anticipated scenarios of climate change yet of lower priority. Sudan being one of the top 13 countries with more than 1.5 million km2 of dry lands is expected to face daunting challenges to adapt to the anticipated climate change. Analysis of data showed that droughts and floods with varying severity have inflicted Sudan several times during the past and recent years. One study observed a trend of decreasing rainfall by about 0.5 - 5.0 mm/year over 12 meteorological stations for the period 1952 - 1992. More recently, a study concluded that the highest frequencies of receiving only 50% of the seasonal long term average rainfall was between latitude 18° to 22° N in the northern parts. Analysis of the performance of both temperature and rainfall for the period 1960-2006, revealed a rising temperature trend during the last three decades, while rainfall showed a declining trend for the same period except in south of Kordofan and the extreme southern parts. Another study projected temperature rise in 2030 in Western Sudan by 0.5 to 1°C while globally it is 0.6°C. Consequently the average annual rate of evapotranspiration increases from 2773 to 3110 mm. The yield of sorghum and millet in Western Sudan is expected to decline between 13-82% and 20-70% respectively. This paper highlights some of the results of climate change studies and its associated impacts on agricultural production systems together with suggested strategies, tools and practices for increased resilience and/or mitigation of climate change effects in drylands in general and Sudan in specific.

Description

Meeting: Ninth International Conference on Dryland Development : Sustainable Development in the Drylands Meeting the Challenge of Global Climate Change, 7-10 November 2008, Alexandria, Egypt

Keywords

ARID AND SEMI-ARID AREAS, RAINFALL, LAND USE CHANGE, CAPACITY STRENGTHENING, RESILIENCE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

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