Early prediction of malaria epidemics in the East African Highlands using climate data

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132953.pdf (454.12 KB)

Date

2010

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Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Climate and Human Health Research Unit, Kenya medical research institute, Nairobi, KE

Abstract

The Kenya Medical Research Institute has developed a climate model for early prediction of malaria epidemics. Designed for joint use by the Departments of Meteorology and National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP), the models are user-friendly and generate accurate decision-making information. Increase in malaria cases during an epidemic is exponential; cases can increase from100-600% quickly depleting resources required to manage the epidemic. The new models show high sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power; they can detect weather conditions that support rapid generation of malaria parasites in disease vectors 2-3 months ahead of the epidemic, thus providing sufficient time to deploy interventions.

Description

Keywords

MALARIA, EPIDEMIOLOGY, DISEASE CONTROL, PROPHYLAXIS, MALARIA EPIDEMICS, EARLY PREDICTION, CLIMATE DATA, WEATHER, EAST AFRICA

Citation

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10625/46456

DOI

Collections

IDRC Research Results / Résultats de recherches du CRDI
2010-2019 / Années 2010-2019
Research Results (CCAA) / Résultats de recherches (ACCA)